Most people think they are a toss-up and too close to call. Based on a detailed political report, the New York Times is favoring the elections for the Republicans in the House and Senate. The issues favoring Democrats are abortion, voting rights, and Jan. 6. The issues favoring the Republicans are inflation, immigration, and suburban crime. The question is which of these issues will rise to the top and be the major concern, and thus influence the election. The number of incumbents is close, with about 30 seats as possible toss-ups in the House. LGBTQ+ issues no longer appear to be a winner for the Republicans except at the state and local levels.
The one undeniable fact is the huge cost of elections, most of which goes for expensive TV advertising over a period of months. Negative ads still work, and the Republicans are experts at it. Political advisors like to talk about “framing the narrative,” that is coming up with a simple slug line that summarizes a campaign. The Republicans most successful line has been “soft on crime” that they throw at the Democrats. Nationwide public opinion polls show the majority strongly approve of abortion rights. Whether or not that will carry over into the voting booth remains to be seen.
The stunts by the Governors of Texas and Florida of deporting migrants to the northern states seems to have backfired. It may even have put them in legal jeopardy. The failure to pass immigration reform measures for decades is growing worse with the significant increase in immigration and refugees every year. Neither the Republican nor Democratic administrations have been able to deal with it.
Former President Donald J. Trump
I am reluctant to discuss anything about Trump since I think the less the media talks about him the better. He feeds on attention, particularly TV. The search warrant revealed the FBI was looking for Top Secret documents. Why, or how they got there remains to be seen. It appears to put the Donald at a perceived higher risk of indictment. Some have speculated about the possible charges, but those are just guesses. The ultimate charges may well involve issues unrelated to misuse of public records. The records simply may have contained evidence of other crimes. I expect that he will be in jail before 2024. The former aides are deserting the sinking ship out of concern for their own culpability. Even some true believers are having second thoughts. Yes, he is still a danger to the republic, and we may never know the full extent of the damage that he has caused.
A curious footnote: The club is on the National Register of Historic Landmarks and is the former winter home of Marjorie Merriweather Post. Trump bought it in 1986 and converted it into a private club in 1994. The house itself has 126 rooms and encompasses 62,500 square feet. That doesn’t include numerous surrounding buildings and a pool. The interior design is over-the-top, which suits Trump’s taste. It is not considered a secure facility.
A lot of people said they are shocked by some of the revelations of the testimonies and/or depositions given before the committee. I was not. We’ve had years of examples before us. Perhaps these were just more dramatic because they were in person and public. Some said that the revelations will feed the narrative of the Democrats. Others said they will provide more talking points for the Republican, who will counter with more lies. Yes, you can’t convince people to change their minds if they don’t want to hear what you’re saying.