Most people think they are a toss-up and too close to call. Based on a detailed political report, the New York Times is favoring the elections for the Republicans in the House and Senate. The issues favoring Democrats are abortion, voting rights, and Jan. 6. The issues favoring the Republicans are inflation, immigration, and suburban crime. The question is which of these issues will rise to the top and be the major concern, and thus influence the election. The number of incumbents is close, with about 30 seats as possible toss-ups in the House. LGBTQ+ issues no longer appear to be a winner for the Republicans except at the state and local levels.

The one undeniable fact is the huge cost of elections, most of which goes for expensive TV advertising over a period of months. Negative ads still work, and the Republicans are experts at it. Political advisors like to talk about “framing the narrative,” that is coming up with a simple slug line that summarizes a campaign. The Republicans most successful line has been “soft on crime” that they throw at the Democrats. Nationwide public opinion polls show the majority strongly approve of abortion rights. Whether or not that will carry over into the voting booth remains to be seen.

The stunts by the Governors of Texas and Florida of deporting migrants to the northern states seems to have backfired. It may even have put them in legal jeopardy. The failure to pass immigration reform measures for decades is growing worse with the significant increase in immigration and refugees every year. Neither the Republican nor Democratic administrations have been able to deal with it.

Stay tuned. We’re getting down to the last stretch in the race. Thank Heavens!

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