Speculation for 2023

The 2023 elections in North Carolina were strictly local. Abortion appeared to be the primary issue in other states. The 2024 elections will be more active. There are 2 Democratic candidates and 4 Republican candidates declared in the Governor’s race so far. Our Senators are not up for re-election in 2024. The situation in the U.S. Congress and the NC General Assembly is quite different, however, and maps for the 3 elections have been announced.

The maps in 2022 were redrawn following a lawsuit, but it is unlikely that the current maps will be challenged. A suit likely would end up in the NC Supreme Court, which has a Republican majority. Candidates for Congressional, NC Senate, and NC House Districts have just started announcing their races since the maps are new. Some have chosen not to run for re-election, and some have moved to another district. Speaker of the NC House in the General Assembly Tim Moore announced that he will not seek re-election and announced his intention to run for Congress.

The current national polls for the 2024 Election for U.S. President consistently favor Trump over Biden. People say that Biden is too old. He will be 80. Trump is 77. Biden’s list of legislative accomplishments is impressive, but it appears to have been ignored by the electorate. He’s just not getting his message across.

The Presidential political party nominating primaries will be held next spring with the general election in November 2024. The candidates who win the nomination of their party does not mean they will win in the general election. In most cases, the candidate who has won the most state primaries will also win the nomination at the national political convention of the party. With four court cases and 91 charges, Trump would appear to face significant liabilities. Even if he is convicted of a felony, the question remains whether any of the cases will complete the appeal process prior to the General Election.

The Minnesota Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that former president Donald Trump can appear on the primary ballot next year but left open the possibility he could be struck from the general election ballot because of the Jan. 6,2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. The suit was brought regarding a clause in the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. A similar suit has been filed in Colorado.

The real issue in the Presidential Campaigns comes as the result of a Federal Case entitled Citizens’ United that allows for an unlimited amount of corporate money to be spent in the elections. The total just for the Presidential Campaigns was $6.6 billion, with $14 billion for all 2020 Federal Campaigns. No other civilized nation spends that much money on elections. In the 28 countries in the European Union, state funding of political parties (or elections) varies. The most significant difference is that most of those countries have more than two political parties.

The issue of corruption ultimately impacts upon the public trust. Unfortunately, former President Trump has consistently worked to undermine public trust in our electoral process. That was because he didn’t like the results rather than there being ANY evidence of malfeasance or improper counting of votes.

If we lose faith in our system of governance, then our democracy surely will fail.

by John Suddath This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.