President Biden
President Biden finally made it official that he is running for a second term. Regardless of his age and low poll ratings, he couldn’t say No. So far, no one has announced their opposition to him. Given the ineptitude of the Secret Service, a bullet would seem to be more of a threat.
It’s a different story for the Republicans. It seems like someone is announcing his or her candidacy every other day. Trump is still the leader in the polls, but I predict that even if he is not in jail by the primaries, he will face more than one conviction. Of course, he will play that out on appeal, but a felony conviction itself I think would disqualify him. Aside from his die-hard supporters, I think few people will still buy his claims that he won the 2020 election.
The Republicans have been focused on getting legislation passed in state legislatures and not focused yet on the 2024 elections. The Republican National Committee has kept its distance from the DeSantis/Trump circus. I guess they’re waiting for them to knock each other out.
The Democrats appear to worry the most about a third-party candidate splitting the Democratic vote. Who are they projecting? I don’t see any serious candidates on the horizon yet, either within the party or outside the party.
The Democrats have won the popular vote for 30 years and lost the Electoral College through weak strategies and some redistricting. But both parties play that game. The Supreme Court intervened in the 2000 election, and they certainly would favor the Republicans again next year if it’s a close call.
At this point, external forces seem to be more of a factor. Will the economy go into recession this year? How long will the war in Ukraine play out? Will China invade Taiwan? They’ve been trying for years, but how much damage can the Republicans do with Hunter Biden? Will the actual dollars from the Infrastructure Bill be too late to have any influence? Can the Democrats take back the U.S. House of Representatives? The Republicans have lost one of their most significant media mouthpieces, and will he be replaced in time or where will he go? The slow dribble of January 6th convictions is starting to disillusion some Republican voters. Abortion appears to be too evenly split to be a deciding factor. The Republican transphobic attacks are turning off young voters. The Republicans will use immigration to appeal to their base, but it seems unlikely to be a major issue for independent swing voters.
Of course, money plays a big part in elections. The $5.7 billion for the Presidential Election was small compared with the $14.4 for Congressional Elections. Although small donors increased in number, it’s still the big donors who carry most of the freight. Even though we are awash in billionaires, it seems hard to believe that those totals will go much higher next time around. Most of the money goes for TV ads, but social media advertising is gaining as well as having a huge impact in terms of public opinion. Dirty tricks and disinformation campaigns reached a peak in 2016. “Messaging” is a catch-all phrase for a media strategy.
When will the significant trends emerge? Probably not until the primaries next February/March. Depending upon the number of candidates, it may take a few primaries for the candidates to shake out. Bard cites these issues: the economy, health care, education, climate change, gun control, immigration, and foreign policy. Climate change is a major issue in Europe, but in the U.S. the fossil fuel industry keeps pushing it to the back burner. We probably will get a couple more “14-point plans” and campaign promises, which are never kept.
Oh, how I wish we could limit this circus to three months and have public financing of campaigns. No, we don’t need longer to debate the issues or to discuss campaign pledges. The Founding Fathers rode in horse-drawn carriages, and they printed pamphlets. They never envisaged a multi-billion dollar carnage. It’s time to get real and abolish the Electoral College, limit campaign funds, and set term limits for Congress like we have for the President.
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