With less than 15 months before the 2026 elections, it is still hard to come up with odds on any election or party. Generally speaking, the party in office loses House seats in the mid-term. The popularity of the President also has an effect, but that can change over time. Considering the sources+ cited by Gemini, the Democrats stand a chance of recovering the House with the Republicans losing about a dozen seats. Although the Republicans have more Senate seats up for re-election than the Democrats, they still are projected to retain control of the Senate. The Democrats have picked up a few House seats in the Special Elections.
Wikipedia, Politico, Brookings, The Guardian, Gallup News, UVA Center for Politics, and National Conference of State Legislatures
Few gamblers would cite odds for an event that far in the future. In most elections, there is a surprise event that turns the tide. It can’t be predicted regardless of what the polls say. The political polls have been unreliable in recent years anyway. So much is based on wishful thinking and respondents lying. Few people have a landline now, so that makes it difficult to get a representative sample.
Of course, the President is notable for being unpredictable, and he may drop a political bomb at any time. The Epstein Affair is growing as a threat to the President that he may not be able to control. Israel’s continued bombing in Gaza and Qatar is very unpopular in the US and in Israel, and that works against the Republicans. It is unlikely to be resolved by November 2026 as is the war in Ukraine. The President boasted that he could settle with Russia in only a few days, but Putin has stiffed him repeatedly.
The Democrats’ possibilities in North Carolina appear to be dismal, both in the State House and in DC. Repeated gerrymandering makes it more difficult. As long as the state economy remains strong, the party in power will remain popular. The national economy is much more unpredictable at this point with higher inflation and lower job growth. The professional gamblers prefer sports to politics. It’s easier to work the odds.
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