First, you need to understand some of the basics of statistics and data management. Then, there is the polling lingo, such as: representative subset, known as a sample. The sample must include all the segments of the population to be measured. The samples are randomly selected by computer-generated lists of numbers. It used to be that pollsters only telephoned people, but now they select landlines, cellphones, and send emails to include the different methods that people use to communicate. There are many other variables to be considered such as age, race, gender, and region of the country.

Once you have a representative sample based on the same percentages as the total population, then you still will end with a margin of error, usually + - 4%. If one candidate is 2% ahead, they still are within the margin of error. so it is still problematic.

The Home Stretch

The National Election only has about six weeks left so the ads and tours are in high gear. The race still seems to be too close to call. It almost seems as though we aren’t having any state, local, or municipal elections. I guess they just don’t have the money for TV ads, mailers, etc. I have struggled even to get a list of candidates, except for my congressional district. Various groups usually hold candidate forums, either in person or online. There just doesn’t seem to be much interest in them, with the national election taking all the attention. Due to a lawsuit, we’re even having to reprint the ballots to remove Robert Kennedy, Jr.

While the second presidential debate was consequential with the withdrawal of Biden, but there seems to be no chance that Trump will withdraw regardless of his poor performance in the third debate. Too bad. Nate Silver still calls him in the lead on the votes in the electoral college. We’ve had two disastrous results from that in prior elections. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again.

We’ve Got a Series of Weird Elections
In the Current Races Both Nationally and Locally

The most significant news recently was, of course, the decision of the President to withdraw from the campaign at the last minute after he had won most of the primaries. The surprising impact of that was the explosive growth in energy, money, and endorsements for the Vice-President. However reluctant he may have been, the Democrats had read the polls correctly that he was a drag on the campaign.

The Vice-President will be back in Raleigh again this week along with her new VP selection. Biden and Harris have made numerous visits to the state, which is an indication that they think the state is in play. The strategy for the past two elections has been to gain control of the votes of the Electoral College rather than the popular votes. This is an archaic system that should be replaced, but the inertia to maintain the status quo reigns.